By: Andre Scholle - VP and Head of Region India, Turkey, MEA and CIS at ZF Aftermarket

In a global marketplace characterised by volatility, strengthening resilience to external shocks is essential as geopolitics, technological advances, and shifting vehicle architectures reshape what was once a relatively predictable, parts-driven ecosystem.

Operating in this environment is no longer a question about how to optimise existing systems, but how to build resilience into a system that is constantly changing. For the global vehicle aftermarket parts industry, adapting to this environment requires a structural reset. 

Geopolitical Headwinds and the Politicisation of Tariffs 

While the aftermarket parts industry has always been exposed to macroeconomic cycles, the difference now is the frequency and intensity of disruption.

The weaponisation of tariffs has seen trade policy uncertainty surge to the top of the risk matrix for global operators, as policies can shift overnight, altering cost structures and forcing rapid repricing across supply chains. 

Supply chain disruptions – previously a rare occurrence triggered by single global events – have also become more regular and persistent, affecting the availability of parts across the value chain, from semiconductors to basic components. 

Competitive pressure has also intensified in a more globalised marketplace, particularly from players with more agile sourcing strategies or stronger regional footprints. 

Adding further complexity is a growing wave of geopolitical fragmentation. China has temporarily suspended its second wave of rare earth export controls until November 2026 though earlier restrictions on seven elements remain in force. These critical minerals and other inputs sit at the heart of modern vehicle production and, increasingly, aftermarket servicing. 

At the same time, major economies are putting up defensive barriers. The EU is imposing tariffs across EVs, steel (via CBAM carbon tariff now applying indirectly to steel in car production through electricity used), and industrial equipment. India is raising duties to accelerate domestic manufacturing; Latin American markets are considering restrictions on imported vehicles and parts; and Western economies are actively reviewing Chinese clean-tech imports. 

South Africa is considering imposing tariffs of up to 50% on vehicles from China and India, as imports from these markets surged 368% and 135% respectively over the past four years. The current duty sits at around 25%, with bound rates at 50%.

Even traditional allies are not immune. Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe signal a broader shift toward selective protectionism, with the U.S. vehicle-specific 25% Section 232 tariff remaining in force but expiring around July 2026, despite pockets of liberalisation, such as the EU–Mercosur agreement.

For the aftermarket, this means the global playing field is no longer level, and questions remain about when and if the market will revert to the status quo.

Engineering Out the Shocks: A New Strategy for Resilience 

In this environment, resilience is less about reacting to shocks and more about engineering them out of the system.

The most effective aftermarket players are refocusing on bolstering structural readiness through a comprehensive multifaceted strategy.

The key pillars in this approach must prioritise domestic and regional sourcing to reduce tariff exposure and improve availability, alongside strategic partnerships across suppliers and logistics providers to create flexibility and greater agility. 

Portfolio diversification, which spreads risk across products, technologies, and markets, is another vital component. When combined, these pillars build operating models that can absorb disruption without breaking.

The Dual-Speed Reality: ICE, EV, and the Software-Defined Vehicle 

While geopolitics is rewriting the rules of trade, technology is redefining the nature of the aftermarket.

For example, electrification is no longer a future trend; it’s firmly underway. But its trajectory is far from uniform.

While heavy commercial vehicles will remain dominated by internal combustion engines (ICEs) well into the next decade, passenger vehicles are seeing steady growth in hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs) across most regions. However, the trajectory varies significantly by market. In South Africa, plug-in hybrids are outpacing pure EVs, hybrid sales surged 288% in 2025 while battery EV sales declined 17%. Toyota is entering SA's EV market with three models in 2026, and battery EV sales jumped 96% in Q1 2026, though BEVs still made up only 0.17% of all vehicles sold in 2025. In this regard, electrification is expected to outpace hydrogen adoption in the medium term.

For the aftermarket, this creates a dual-speed reality. Traditional ICE components will remain relevant for years, while new demand emerges for high-voltage systems, battery-related services, and EV-specific components. The challenge is not picking a winner, but supporting both simultaneously. 

Perhaps the most profound shift is the transition from mechanical to software-led vehicle architectures. Hardware-driven systems, reactive maintenance, and parts replacement have given way to electronic control units (ECUs), over-the-air updates, and preventive diagnostics.

The transition has  fundamentally changed where the aftermarket delivers value, with the next evolution already underway as self-learning systems, predictive maintenance, and continuous software evolution characterise the next phase.  

As such, the aftermarket is no longer just about replacing parts. It’s about diagnosing complex, interconnected systems, updating and calibrating software, managing data access and cybersecurity, and communicating increasingly technical issues to customers. 

A Digital Future

The net effect is that aftermarket repair is becoming digital, and value creation is moving well beyond the physical component.

In this paradigm, telematics and connectivity have gone from value-adding to mission-critical services.

Connected vehicles are also turning data into a core asset, enabling real-time diagnostics, predictive maintenance, and improved safety and uptime. For fleet operators, this translates directly into cost savings and efficiency gains.

For aftermarket players, it creates new service layers, but only for providers with the capabilities and skills to track, analyse and visualise the data, and translate it into tangible outcomes for customers.

Emerging Opportunities 

Despite the risks and market complexity, underlying demand remains strong. As vehicle ownership grows, particularly in emerging markets, the need for maintenance and repair continues to expand. 

Older vehicle fleets, in particular, drive consistent demand for replacement parts, remanufactured components, and value-line offerings.

At the same time, the independent aftermarket (IAM) is maturing rapidly. New right-to-repair legislation in South Africa (effective July 2021) has stripped away monopolies historically held by OEMs, allowing independent workshops to compete for service business and directly increasing demand for non-OEM, high-quality aftermarket parts. Expanding networks of independent workshops and dealer-independent garages are increasing access to service, especially outside major urban centres. The average vehicle age in SA has climbed to 12.2 years for passenger and light commercial vehicles, with millions now out of warranty, creating consistent demand for replacement parts. 

This creates a powerful opportunity for suppliers who can go beyond parts and deliver training and technical support, diagnostic tools, and remanufacturing solutions.

Electrification adds another layer. As EV adoption grows, so too will the need for specialised components and, eventually, battery lifecycle services. The groundwork laid today, particularly in skills and infrastructure, will determine who captures that value tomorrow.

Rethinking the Aftermarket Operating Model

To compete in this environment, the aftermarket needs a more integrated approach. Service networks must move beyond single-technology assumptions. The future is a powertrain matrix that is modular, flexible, and capable of supporting ICE, hybrid, and electric systems.

This requires broader technical capabilities, more sophisticated diagnostics, and continuous upskilling of technicians.

Traditional original equipment manufacturer (OEM) heritage is also being reimagined into tailored aftermarket offerings, led by preventive maintenance strategies to reduce failure rates, customised repair service kits for efficiency and accuracy, and remanufactured solutions where full replacement isn’t viable. 

The common thread is a shift toward lifecycle thinking rather than transactional repair.

Within this new model, distribution is also evolving as digital marketplaces and online parts ordering expand the reach of aftermarket parts providers. 

Online parts platforms and digital marketplaces are improving accessibility, particularly in remote or underserved regions. For suppliers and distributors, this opens up new distribution and logistics opportunities, but also introduces new expectations around speed, availability, and transparency.

A Focus on Value

As multiple factors reshape the global vehicle aftermarket industry, the common thread is a shift in where and how providers create value.

Winning in the aftermarket will require adaptability in the face of constant disruption, technical depth across mechanical and digital domains, and a clear view of where value is moving, because in the modern aftermarket, resilience is not just about surviving shocks; it’s about being structurally positioned to grow through them.